The Boston Celtics will attempt to stave off elimination in the 2019 NBA Playoffs when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. Tipoff for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals is at 8 p.m. ET from the Fiserv Forum. The Bucks have a commanding 3-1 lead and with one more victory will head to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2001. Last year, these teams met in the first round and Boston prevailed in a seven-game series. The home team won every contest in their 2018 series, but both clubs already have posted road wins this time around. Milwaukee is coming off a two-game sweep in Boston, including a 113-101 victory on Monday night. Milwaukee is an 8.5-point favorite after the line opened at -9.5. The over-under for total points scored is 220.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Bucks odds, up sharply from an open of 217.5. Before you make any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in on Game 5 of Celtics vs. Bucks. We can tell you the model is leaning under, and it also generated a point-spread pick that hits well over 50 percent of the time. That pick is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Bucks have shown a significant edge in depth, and their reserves are responsible for perhaps the biggest sequence in the series. In the third quarter Monday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton were forced to the bench with four fouls each. The reserves led the way to a 17-7 run that saw Milwaukee lead 80-72 heading into the fourth quarter.
Antetokounmpo took over the rest of the way, scoring 17 points in the final period and repeatedly turning back Boston comeback attempts with crowd-silencing baskets. Reserve point guard George Hill scored 15 points and has arguably outplayed Boston star Kyrie Irving at times in the series. Hill has 36 points, eight rebounds and eight assists over the past two contests, and the Bucks have covered three straight.
Even so, Milwaukee isn't assured of covering the Celtics vs. Bucks spread against a resilient and dangerous Boston club that already has shown it can win at the Fiserv Forum.
In their Game 1 victory, the Celtics blitzed Milwaukee with a combination of sterling defense and efficient offense. They shot 54 percent from the field while holding the Bucks to 34.8 percent. They held Antetokounmpo to 22 points on 7-of-21 shooting. Boston had 25 assists on 47 field goals and held a 38-26 advantage in points in the paint.
What's more, the Celtics are 10-4 against the spread on their past 14 trips to Milwaukee, and the road team is on a 5-1 spread run in this matchup.
Who wins Game 5 of Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations?
