After winning Game 3, the Houston Rockets find themselves in another effective must-win game, as coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win this series against the Golden State Warriors would be an extremely tall order. And, yes, we're all aware of the 3-1 jokes just waiting to be told at the Warriors' expense. But that's not going to happen again. So the Rockets have to win on Monday and it's a pick-'em game. Does that favor Houston at home?
Below is all the information for the point spread, money line and over/under for Rockets-Warriors Game 4, with predictions for all.
*All lines via Westgate Sportsbook
Warriors vs. Rockets ATS odds, pick Line: Pick Analysis: Listen, there is logic on both sides of this. Golden State is probably the better team, and any time you're getting the better team in a pick-'em game, you could certainly argue running with that. On the flip side, the gap between these two teams isn't terribly significant and Houston is kind of in do-or-die mode, and that motivation is worth riding in a lot of cases. Here, I don't see an angle either way. Flip a coin. But I'd stay away. Pick: Stay away Warriors vs. Rockets O/U line, pick Line: 220.5 total points Analysis: The Rockets went under in five of their first six playoffs games this year. Each of the last two games vs. Golden State have gone over. For me this is more about Golden State -- Stephen Curry has not gotten going and everyone knows it's a matter of time before he starts ripping the net again. Game 4 is a good bet for that to happen, and I think Houston keeps up with that energy and scoring in a desperation game. Pick: Over Warriors vs. Rockets money line odds, pick Odds: Warriors -110, Rockets -110 Analysis: Well, not much to say here. In some books you can get a little extra value on the Rockets' money line, but the Westgate has them both at -110. Pick: Again, a coin flip. Odds and Analysis
Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors will look to bounce back in Game 4 as they travel to Houston to take on Chris Paul and a Rockets squad that beat them in overtime just two days ago. That win gave the Rockets life in the series, which now stands at 2-1 in favor of the Warriors. Golden State heads into Game 4, which tips off on Monday at 9:30 p.m. ET, with no new injury news, while Houston looks to potentially be without guard Danuel House (foot) once again. Sportsbooks list the Rockets as one-point home favorites, down from an open of two, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of just how well Houston has played since getting their big three healthy. Paul, Clint Capela, and James Harden all have been forced to miss time this season, but when all three have been healthy, the Rockets have been untouchable. The Rockets went on a head-turning run with all three healthy to close the season, starting with a six-point win in Golden State on February 23. From that point on, the Rockets posted a 20-4 record, which included a near perfect (11-1) record at home. They had an average point differential of +11.6, which easily would have ranked No. 1 in the league over the course of a full season.
Likewise, their 118.6 offensive rating during that stretch easily led the NBA, while their defensive rating was No. 10. In addition to being the NBA's best team over the final two months, Houston made quick work of a quality Jazz team in the first round, with a near double-digit average margin of victory. They lost two tough games in Golden State, both of which were realistically within their grasp. With their big three healthy and playing well, look for Houston to continue their excellent play on their home court in Game 4.
Just because Houston has been on fire doesn't mean it will cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread in the NBA Playoffs 2019 on Monday, however.
The model is also well aware that Golden State could be up 3-0 in this series despite Curry struggling and the team shooting just 35 percent from 3-point land as a whole. Curry torched the Rockets during the regular season, averaging 28 points per game. He averaged 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists against them in the NBA Playoffs last season while knocking down four threes per game.
For all of Curry's struggles, Durant has been there to pick up the slack. He has continued his torrid playoff pace, averaging 36.7 points against Houston so far. His 46-point performance in Game 3 puts his scoring average over the past two weeks at 41 points. The Rockets clearly have no way of slowing him down, so look for Durant to continue to put up gaudy numbers in Monday's Game 4 matchup.
