It was supposed to be a showdown of the top guard combos, but this series in the 2019 NBA Playoffs has been anything but. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have outplayed Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, and superior depth has spurred the Golden State Warriors to being one win away from a fifth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. The Portland Trail Blazers aim to keep their season afloat when they host Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night at 9 p.m. ET. The Warriors won both games in Oakland, by 22 points in Game 1 before escaping with a three-point victory in Game 2. Moving the series to Portland didn't help the Blazers, as Golden State rallied from an 18-point deficit for a 110-99 win. Now, Portland must show up Monday or its 2019 NBA Playoffs are over. The latest Warriors vs. Blazers odds have Golden State favored by 2.5 after the spread rose as high as four on Monday, while the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219. Injuries will once again be a factor on both sides, so before locking in any Warriors vs. Blazers picks of your own, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is showing.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered the conference finals in the 2019 NBA Playoffs with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them this season. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering the conference finals on a strong 85-61 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Game 4 of Warriors vs. Trail Blazers. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. That one is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Warriors have been without Kevin Durant (calf) and the 34 points he's averaging this postseason. Durant won't play Monday, either, but Golden State is still game away from the NBA Finals. Curry and Thompson are averaging 59.3 points, nearly 12 more than Lillard and McCollum. And Draymond Green has been major contributor. His seventh-career postseason triple-double sparked a Game 4 victory.
While the Warriors have flourished without Durant in the NBA Playoffs 2019, the Blazers have not found a rhythm with a less-than-healthy Lillard, who is reportedly playing through separated ribs. Lillard is averaging 20.3 points in this series, but on 32.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, McCollum is averaging 20.6 on 37.1 percent. The Warriors aren't necessarily known for their defense, but they're holding the Blazers to 101 points per game, nearly 14 under their season average and 10 points lower than Golden State allowed during the season.
Golden State has looked strong so far, but there is no guarantee it will be able to cover the Warriors vs. Blazers spread against a Portland club that has been overlooked all season.
The Trail Blazers may not have put together a complete game, but they rank No. 6 in scoring and went 32-9 at home during the regular season. They also went 2-2 against the Warriors, including the only meeting in this calendar year, a 129-107 home rout on Feb. 13. They lost by 11 at home in Game 3, but the Blazers are on a 4-0 against the spread run following a double-digit defeat.
The season isn't over yet, and Durant won't play in Game 4. Veteran bench-leader Andre Iguodala (calf) may not play either, lessening the depth supremacy of Golden State's bench. And they still have the dynamic Lillard and McCollum, who have yet to reach their combined points average in any game of this series.
